Surfing the Chop on Wall Street Towards Retirement

Surfing the Chop on Wall Street Towards Retirement

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Wednesday, May 5, 2010

Who Brought the Bears Out, Who, Who, ?

Case for Bears:
What happened to crazy Iran?   Not even a peep?  Venezuela?
Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico?
What about Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain?
    Greece Immediate Danger
    Spain Lurking Danger
    Portugal Next In Line
What about California or other state bankrupsies?
Will commercial real estate drop in valuations debts clobber the regional banks?
Is the government going to continue the harassment of the investment banks? 

Will Technical Analysts Expectations like the market is too high continue
    "Sell in May and Walk Away"
Long Term - Baby Boomers are going to take their money out of the market 46'-64'ers

Might be a while before we all start thinking about the Case for the Bull Market.   When the theme strengthens we will likely start hearing:

Case for the Bulls:
More money coming into market
EU will not let its currency collapse.
Old Investors short term memory fading from the economy on the brink.
Market has cheaper valuation than foreign markets.
Inventories are low and replenishment cycle is positive.
Market is improving so why would commercial real estate be an issue.  
Earnings season is mostly positive and improving
Dollar is strengthening in a world of worse options.   So lending to US should continue.
The momentum is already positive towards growth and will be hard to turn this ship negative.
Long Term - There has been about 10 years of market stagnation.   What goes down must go up eventually

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I have a passion for investing and surfing.