Surfing the Chop on Wall Street Towards Retirement

Surfing the Chop on Wall Street Towards Retirement

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Thursday, May 27, 2010

Raising Cash and Buying Calls Anticipating Better Stock Prices, but Still Large Amounts of Volatility......

I sold QCOM and put a limit order to buy some QCOM calls at lower a lower price.   One reader was suggesting this and I thought it made sense.   Additionally, I have captured the small QCOM dividend by holding for the last week.    The ex-dividend date was yesterday.  

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

How Low Will EU Liquidity Crisis Push Down The Dow?

I think to unknown is at the core of this crisis.    So as soon as foreigners start clearing out the unknowns we will get a better idea.   Today's trading suggests there is some resistance at current levels.    Whatever you buy it is likely to drop or increase with the broader market moves, just like with the Lehman Crisis in this country.   Gold, Cash, and DLTR seem to be the only contrarian bets available.    Anyone else have an idea?   

8200-9500 according to Cramer.

8700 according to http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/2010/05/how-low-will-the-dow-go/

Monday, May 24, 2010

Market Inflection Point Upward or Downward?

Is it time to watch some movies for the next 2-3 weeks and let the market unwind?    It is just becoming too difficult to get a handle on what is going on?    Up Down Who Knows?   Its a boxing match between the Bears vs. Bulls and we seem to be in round 4 of a 9 round fight.  There does not seem to be an apparent inflection point supporting the bulls or the bears.   Some answers will be needed to the following questions or there will need to be enough time where investors become used to unanswered questions.  

  1. EU Stability!
  2. China accelerating growth!
  3. Reduction of Government vs. Banking!
  4. Record profits!
  5. Pent up Demand can not be stopped?
  6. Political Stability in Thailand!
  7. Greece gets the boot from EU!
  8. Portugal Bailout?
  9. Ireland Bailout?
  10. California Bailout?   Rhode Island?   New York?
  11. Federal Debt?
  12. Lowered unemployment?
  13. BP solution in the Gulf!
  14. Foreign inflows of Cash into the NYSE!
  15. United States seems like new equity safe haven?

Friday, May 21, 2010

Itchy to BUY, but market might still be going down - What to do?

How can I raise cash and buy stocks at the same time?   Sell actual stocks and buy call Options?
My trades for today include:
Bought 100 shares of QCOM on a limit order I set up a long time ago.
Bought 1 Call Option on AAPL with strike price at 250
Sold 200 Shares of T (AT&T)

Net result was less cash, but I still have some reserves left to purchase.   The Qualcom purchase was a surprise, but in retrospect it might be a good call if the market strarts upward.    Who knows.......

Thursday, May 20, 2010

The Risk to Buy Equities is Dropping Quickly - A Mild BUY right now!

Only god knows if we have or will soon hit a low.   Indecision and Chaos from the EU continue.   If you think it is time to start nibbling on stocks, it might be time to look at some European/International worst  hit and high dividend stocks like:
Glaxo Smith Kline
Siemans
Sarnofi Aventis
Banco Santander

Really, as the Euro drops these should actually do better given their international and export biases?   Still the questions is whether to buy now or wait for prices to drop further?    I am still fence sitting on whether the pessimism has reached a climax yet.   Things are only mildly insane.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

New Observation - Sell on the Close and Buy at Midday

Check out the DOW daily charts lately.   This pattern seems to repeat itself over and over lately.    Before the close is getting a lot of volume too, so technicians might suggest this means the market is going higher soon?

Sunday, May 16, 2010

How would the market get hooked on GREED again?

How will the bulls be released again.   What raised expectation is going to lift this market into a new bull run?
  1. EU Stability!
  2. China accelerating growth!
  3. Reduction of Government vs. Banking!
  4. Record profits!
  5. Political Stability in Thailand!
  6. Greece gets the boot from EU!
  7. Lowered unemployment! 
  8. BP solution in the Gulf!
  9. Foreign inflows of Cash into the NYSE!
Wow, I really can not think of many great options.    As long as earnings continue there will be at least a steady rise.    If not the risk of downdrafts seems repeated and pervasive in the near future.

Let me know what your alternative POSITIVES are?

Friday, May 14, 2010

Next Market FEAR Factor - CALIFORNIA? - The Goldless State

The 8th largest economy in the world could mirror or even be a larger mess than the effect of the Mediteranean Club Busters.    To make things worse there is not IMF to force a correction or add liquidity given it is not a separate country.    The Feds might be forced into effect?    Just really hard to say.....    If California goes bust as evidenced by their credit rating, the austerity measures will reinforce the BEARS again.    Fear of the unknown would mirror what is already happening in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS).    If this issue comes up soon than fear will really start to rule the market and we could expect some real drastic drops in the market.

Let me know your thoughts on the subject?

Read more on:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100514/ap_on_bi_ge/us_california_budget

Hard Decision to Sell in a Bear Market!!! I sold some IGV

IGV is an ETF I have held for many years.   I am starting to think that averages or diversified versions of "High Tech" leave to many mediocre stocks in the mix.   This ETF probably has a high beta or high correlation with the market and therefore I should expect to be able to buy this for less in the near future.  We will see. 

About Me

I have a passion for investing and surfing.