New Posts Will Now Only Be Available on http://surfingwallstreet.blogspot.com/

See my other blog at http://surfingwallstreet.blogspot.com/

I will discontinue updating this blog starting today.    Sorry for any inconvenience.

Summer Duldrums - Buy at Dow 9400 and sell at Dow 10400 till end of August

My plan for making money this summer is unfortunately a trading strategy for technology and high beta type stocks.    I plan to buy low at DOW 9400ish and Sell at DOW 10400ish.    Mostly I will plan on buying call options or purchasing the actual stock depending on circumstances.   I think the market has enough noise in it to last till the end of summer within that trading range.    Then hopefully the bulls will get organized toward an October - early December Bull Market.    Let me know if you have a better crystal ball?   I am always game to listen to other opinions.

Congress Is Done With the Financial Bill FinRef - NEXT COMES THE ENERGY BILL?

Two good pics and two stock I own for the new ENERGY BILL could be:
NATURAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE STOCKS:  
CLNE - This stock will add value as the natural gas stays low promoting further switch overs from gasoline to natural gas.    Another stock that could benefit would be FSYS which I believe modifies engines from gasoline to natural gas.  Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and supply of alternative fuel components and systems for use in the transportation, industrial, and power generation industries.
COAL INFRASTRUCTURE STOCKS:
ADES - Coal stack scrubbers and the like will like be in demand if further regulation on existing and new coal plants needs to adopt stricker regulations.  

Any other ideas for energy bill winners?

SOLD 100 SHARES OF VAW AT 66.28ish

I was just thinking it was time to sell materials as they looked currently overpriced in our current market.    I put in a buy order near 61 for 100 shares.   Hopefully, I will get a chance to buy these shares back at a later date, as I think inflation is in our future.   One just does not know exactly when and how bad. 

Bought 200 shares of KFN at 7.87

This stock should move forward.    However, the stock currently seems to have a large beta as correlated with the broader market.    There could be further lowering of KFN if the broader market drops further.   I need to do some more homework on this complex stock.

Sold 25 Shares of AAPL today at 271ish

I plan on buying them back lower.    Currently, I have a limit order to buy the shares back at 252ish per share.  I think Cramer is right about the stock dropping temporarily before the release 4.0 of the Iphone.     Any thoughts?

Bull or Bear in the Next Two Weeks?

Possibly a small bull before the end of the month, based on Hedge Fund and end of the quarter needs for porfits (Cramer's yesterday segment).   However, given the market is already high, I am just am just going to sit on the sidelines and potentially sell some more stock in the next two weeks.   If there is a low enough decline I will be a buyer of call on names like - SKWS, ADSK, SNDK, YHOO, APPL, and the like growth stocks.  Lets see what happens.

Is It Time to Wait For The Next Shoe To Drop Or Start Buying

I am going to continue with buy and hold of High Dividend and Safe Large Caps.    With Options I will "Trade the Market" for ups and downs during the summer.    I sold my APPL Call yesterday for a 30% gain and will wait for APPL to return to the 250 level to Buy in the money calls at that level.     Any other ideas on how to profit from a horizontal market I think will last for most of the summer?

Summer Market Concept Dejour

Volitility will likely continue.   This will continue to hammer low dividend high growth stocks.   This is where the next sector rotation will likely take place as soon as the volatility stabilizes.

I will continue to own a core position of high dividend stocks and buy stock or more likely buy calls on under valued tech growth stocks like ADSK, AAPL, SNDK, CRM, ARMH, EMC, INTC, HPQ ORCL, IBM, SWKS.    Many of these were also mentioned on Cramer's Mad Money yesterday as being undervalued as per the expected future growth.   So keep your eyes open for the greatest option.

Continued Market Volatility, with Signs of Wall Street Clearing!

China - A soft or fast landing is expected from their real estate bubble.

EU - Seems to be holding without much negative news

BP - Oil spill is partially contained.    I own BP, but do not know whether to buy or sell?

US - Unemployment seems to be moving positive with yesterdays unemployment numbers.

US - Bernanke seems to think we are on the road to a steady if weak recovery.  

Mostly, yesterdays market rise must have scared short sellers a bunch.

When are the BULLS coming Back?

1000 Bull Dances does not seem like an event happening any time soon.    According to Cramer's two days ago program there are a number of issues still to be resolved.

*fine print on financial regulation
*Spanish Bank Stabilization
*Lower Unemployment
*Oil Spill Resolution
*Confirmation of China's Soft Landing
*European Stabilitization

On top of this I would add some of my own anecdotes:

*Enough time to get traders used to the New Volatility
*No more additional issues spooking the markets from: Israel, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Afghanistan, Iraq
*Strong mid year earnings season

When we hear the BULLS roaring back I will be watching these stocks very closely to buy or buy calls on as the market lowers:

Netflix
Apple
Autodesk

Profiting from a Volitile Market .....

It seems like having enough cash around to take advantage when the next shoe drops - Iran, Venezuala, Rhode Island, California, Israel, BP, EURO, China, Commercial Real Estate, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Spain, Greece.....

So I am going to continue to raise cash on the bumps up and buy call on the jarring drops.    I like purchasing Call Options in AAPL, BP, ADSK, and the like.    Assuming the bulls will return one day you will at least profit from the Calls you buy and have some cash on the side as well.   Let me know your thoughts.

Raising Cash and Buying Calls Anticipating Better Stock Prices, but Still Large Amounts of Volatility......

I sold QCOM and put a limit order to buy some QCOM calls at lower a lower price.   One reader was suggesting this and I thought it made sense.   Additionally, I have captured the small QCOM dividend by holding for the last week.    The ex-dividend date was yesterday.  

How Low Will EU Liquidity Crisis Push Down The Dow?

I think to unknown is at the core of this crisis.    So as soon as foreigners start clearing out the unknowns we will get a better idea.   Today's trading suggests there is some resistance at current levels.    Whatever you buy it is likely to drop or increase with the broader market moves, just like with the Lehman Crisis in this country.   Gold, Cash, and DLTR seem to be the only contrarian bets available.    Anyone else have an idea?   

8200-9500 according to Cramer.

8700 according to http://blogs.forbes.com/digitalrules/2010/05/how-low-will-the-dow-go/

Market Inflection Point Upward or Downward?

Is it time to watch some movies for the next 2-3 weeks and let the market unwind?    It is just becoming too difficult to get a handle on what is going on?    Up Down Who Knows?   Its a boxing match between the Bears vs. Bulls and we seem to be in round 4 of a 9 round fight.  There does not seem to be an apparent inflection point supporting the bulls or the bears.   Some answers will be needed to the following questions or there will need to be enough time where investors become used to unanswered questions.  

1. EU Stability!
2. China accelerating growth!
3. Reduction of Government vs. Banking!
4. Record profits!
5. Pent up Demand can not be stopped?
6. Political Stability in Thailand!
7. Greece gets the boot from EU!
8. Portugal Bailout?
9. Ireland Bailout?
10. California Bailout?   Rhode Island?   New York?
11. Federal Debt?
12. Lowered unemployment?
13. BP solution in the Gulf!
14. Foreign inflows of Cash into the NYSE!
15. United States seems like new equity safe haven?

Itchy to BUY, but market might still be going down - What to do?

How can I raise cash and buy stocks at the same time?   Sell actual stocks and buy call Options?
My trades for today include:
Bought 100 shares of QCOM on a limit order I set up a long time ago.
Bought 1 Call Option on AAPL with strike price at 250
Sold 200 Shares of T (AT&T)

Net result was less cash, but I still have some reserves left to purchase.   The Qualcom purchase was a surprise, but in retrospect it might be a good call if the market strarts upward.    Who knows.......

The Risk to Buy Equities is Dropping Quickly - A Mild BUY right now!

Only god knows if we have or will soon hit a low.   Indecision and Chaos from the EU continue.   If you think it is time to start nibbling on stocks, it might be time to look at some European/International worst  hit and high dividend stocks like:
Glaxo Smith Kline
Siemans
Sarnofi Aventis
Banco Santander

Really, as the Euro drops these should actually do better given their international and export biases?   Still the questions is whether to buy now or wait for prices to drop further?    I am still fence sitting on whether the pessimism has reached a climax yet.   Things are only mildly insane.

New Observation - Sell on the Close and Buy at Midday

Check out the DOW daily charts lately.   This pattern seems to repeat itself over and over lately.    Before the close is getting a lot of volume too, so technicians might suggest this means the market is going higher soon?

How would the market get hooked on GREED again?

How will the bulls be released again.   What raised expectation is going to lift this market into a new bull run?

1. EU Stability!
2. China accelerating growth!
3. Reduction of Government vs. Banking!
4. Record profits!
5. Political Stability in Thailand!
6. Greece gets the boot from EU!
7. Lowered unemployment! 
8. BP solution in the Gulf!
9. Foreign inflows of Cash into the NYSE!

Wow, I really can not think of many great options.    As long as earnings continue there will be at least a steady rise.    If not the risk of downdrafts seems repeated and pervasive in the near future.

Let me know what your alternative POSITIVES are?

Next Market FEAR Factor - CALIFORNIA? - The Goldless State

The 8th largest economy in the world could mirror or even be a larger mess than the effect of the Mediteranean Club Busters.    To make things worse there is not IMF to force a correction or add liquidity given it is not a separate country.    The Feds might be forced into effect?    Just really hard to say.....    If California goes bust as evidenced by their credit rating, the austerity measures will reinforce the BEARS again.    Fear of the unknown would mirror what is already happening in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS).    If this issue comes up soon than fear will really start to rule the market and we could expect some real drastic drops in the market.

Let me know your thoughts on the subject?

Read more on:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100514/ap_on_bi_ge/us_california_budget